Nigeria’s Next President: A Tale of Zoning, Betrayal, and Consensus
On the 25th of February, 2023, Nigerians will decide their next president.
The big question on everyone’s mind is “ Who will succeed Muhammadu Buhari” as Nigeria’s sixteenth president?
There are many contenders for the number one seat in the country. The ruling party, the All Progress Congress (APC) have “strong” aspirants who could be the party’s flagbearer.
Two major contenders from the ruling party are former Lagos State Governor and APC leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo.
The VP’s declaration has been seen by some members of the APC as a betrayal of the APC leader’s trust.
Tinubu and The VP’s Relationship
Osinbajo was appointed Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice in the cabinet of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu from 1999 to 2007.
On Tinubu’s 67th birthday, the VP praises the APC leader as a light for a true democracy.
Many claim Tinubu picked Osinbajo to be Buhari’s running mate and should not “ bite the fingers that fed him. “ However, others in the VP’s camp believe only a competent leader should be president and not based on sentiments.
Three months ago, Tinubu stated in a press conference he had informed President Buhari of his intention to run for the office of the presidency.
In the Vice President’s declaration speech, he described the last 7 years as “ some of the most difficult times in the history of our Nation. “
The VP promises to continue on the current administrations’ plans which are yet to yield the fruits of their 2015 and 2019 campaigns.
However, analysts have asked why Osinbajo should be (s)elected when he will be a continuation of a government that didn’t live up to its promises. Would this be regarded as selective amnesia or clear bias of Buhari?
The ruling party have decided to zone the Southern part of the country. All positions held by the North will now be zoned to the south and vice versa.
The PDP on the other hand might decide to zone the ticket to a region because of the request for a “Southern President.”
However, some PDP members believe the ticket should be thrown open as the zoning “headache” is meant for the ruling party. Atiku said the PDP should focus more on winning than zoning.
Many have called for the South East region of the country to produce the next President as it has never produced one since Nigeria’s independence in 1960.
The major contender from the region is the former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi. Peter Obi was Atiku Abubakar’s running mate in 2019 losing to President Buhari by over 3 million votes — 15,191,847 to 11,262,968.
Despite Obi’s pedigree as a different breed of Nigerian politician, pundits believe he will not be able to win a majority.
Obi faces stiff opposition from former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; former Senate President, Bukola Saraki and Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal.
Another serious contender is Rivers State Governor, Ezenwo Nyesom Wike who is picking up momentum.
INEC has instructed all party primaries must be resolved by June 3, 2022.
According to reports, APC has fixed May 23 as the governorship primary and May 30/31 as the proposed date for its presidential primary election.
The new electoral act allows parties to present a consensus candidate but the APC constitution does not allow for it. Therefore, APC will have to conduct a primary for the presidency. The APC convention took a turn as many party aspirants were “made” to step down.
Becoming Nigeria’s President
To be declared a president, the candidate must an absolute majority and at least 25% in two-thirds of the states is required for a candidate to be elected in the first round. If no candidate wins in the first round, there is a second-round between the top two candidates.
Atiku Abubakar has contested for governor of Adamawa on four occasions and won his party’s ticket in 1999 but was chosen to be Olusegun Obasanjo’s running mate. The 73-year-old politician has been on the ballot two times since his two-term tenure with Obasanjo ended.
2007 — Placing hird with the Action Congress (2,637,848–7.45%); 2019 — Placing second with the PDP (11,262,978–41.2%) to the incumbent. Atiku won 18 states while Buhari won 19 states. The four key states that made difference for the incumbent were Kano (1,464,768); Katsina (1,232,133); Kaduna (993,445) and Borno (836,496).
In 2011 and 2015, Atiku lost his party primaries to Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari respectively.
Promises and More Promises
Of all the aspirants, Tinubu seems to be ahead in the ruling party due to his influence. However, his campaign team has yet to fully articulate his agenda to the populace.
If he emerges as the APC flagbearer, it will be received with mixed feelings as his supporters and opponents are quite vocal.
There have been questions about the state of his health and his ability to truly “serve” Nigerians.
Health concerns were a major challenge during the current President’s tenure. Buhari has been away on multiple occasions due to his health.
President Buhari returned to Nigeria from medical leave in the United Kingdom 104 days after leaving, on August 19, 2017.
There are 8 key measurements to determine a countries’ strength. They are:
To be continued…
Originally published at https://dacurate.substack.com on April 18, 2022.
